The first question to ask is who SHOULD be his running mate. The second question is who will LIKELY be his running mate.
I think Trump needs someone who is on his wavelength from a policy standpoint. This is to assure that he is not being undermined behind the scenes. (Many of us know what happened with Mike Pence.) But it is also to assure that his fingerprint lasts beyond four years. If Trump is elected, his vice-president would have the inside track for the GOP nomination for president for 2028.
I think he also needs someone who can assist him in taming the administrative state and advancing his priorities regarding domestic policy.
This is not the time to play “balance the ticket”. Historically, presidential candidates seek someone who will complement them and perhaps help them win a swing state or two. But given Trump’s history, he needs above all else loyalty. And he needs someone who can be a credible president.
Who would fit the bill? In the US Senate, we have JD Vance, Josh Hawley and Rand Paul. It is possible a military figure might be suitable. General Michael Flynn?
Then there is the question of who is most likely to be anointed.
Remain mindful that six were openly discussed by Trump this week— Ron DeSantis, Tim Scott, Tulsi Gabbard, Vivek Ramaswamy (who is ineligible to be president, and therefore ought not be Vice-President), Kristi Noem and Byron Donalds.
I think Tim Scott is clearly unsuitable.
It is clear Trump might play the race card; and Donalds is certainly compatible with Trump philosophically. It is also possible he might play the gender card. Beside Kristi Noem and Tulsi Gabbard, I think Governor Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Elise Stefanik might become considerations. Sanders is perhaps the strongest pick among these four women.
It should be noted that none of the above names will position Trump to win any particular states that he would not already win. The Senate and the House already have a shortage of good people, and he might not want to pull away from those bodies someone who is strong because they will be needed in those environments.
My personal preferences? Paul, Hawley, Flynn, Vance and DeSantis. But DeSantis and Paul are less compatible with Trump ideologically than the other three men. Some might also question how loyal these two men might be. Note that DeSantis has shown he can get things done, however; and he would excel at taming the administrative state and guiding the domestic agenda if given these tasks.
Who is Trump likely to pick? I think he has already decided. But I don’t know who that will be.
That is the $64 dollar question . If I had to guess , my money would be on J.D. Vance.
He could do much worse than Vance, Fred. He would be a very good pick. (The main drawback would be a relative lack of experience with the ways of Washington.)