The Weekend Polls and The Pundits’ Response

Their is much wailing, gnashing of teeth– and on the other side, exhilaration and giddiness– over some political polls this weekend that demonstrate Trump beating Biden in multiple battleground states. At least 60 percent felt the country is headed in the wrong direction.

In addition, there are critical poll questions that demonstrate many more people feel they are better off under Trump policies than under Biden policies.

There are a couple of issues, however.

First, these polls tend not to include Bobby Kennedy, Jr. in the equation. He is running as an independent, and his candidacy could potentially hurt Trump for various reasons.

Second, the polls also do not include the potential effect of the Green Party candidate; the Libertarian Party candidate; and also the independent candidacy of Cornel West. The No Labels Party was discussing running a candidate (for instance, Joe Manchin of West Virginia), although that discussion seems to have diminished since Bobby Kennedy, Jr. pulled out of the Democratic primaries and decided to run as an independent.

Third, if Trump is convicted in the course of one of his trials, that would alter the equation at least somewhat.

Fourth, the polls do not include the effect of election fraud. This tends to be the socialists’ ace-in-the-hole, and the establishment Republicans in the various state legislatures have not eradicated its potential influence.

One thing seems clear, however. All of these poll results make it even more unlikely that Joe Biden received 81 million votes three years ago. Anyone who told us there was no election fraud, and that Biden legitimately won the election, has absolutely no credibility.


2 thoughts on “The Weekend Polls and The Pundits’ Response

  1. You can almost feel the panic building in the New York Times newsroom.

    And from Michael Walsh:

    November 6, 2023

    THE COLUMN: Dead Man Shuffling

    If I were a Democrat — and I thank the good Lord above every day that I am not — I would be very, very worried about the New York Times/ Siena College poll that broke yesterday. “Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds” ran the headline. The story was even worse for the donkeys: critical swing-state voters hate just about everything pertaining to Joe Biden, including his age, his waning mental faculties, his policies, the direction of the country and, probably, his dogs too. It’s as if the long-suffering American people finally burst out of their media-imposed prisons and, in a cheer moment that will likely end Biden’s candidacy, thrashed the architect of their misfortunes.

    Have a look at the Times story (link is free). Aside from the fact that Biden has a narrow lead in corrupt Wisconsin, the news is unremittingly bad.

    Discontent pulsates throughout the Times/Siena poll, with a majority of voters saying Mr. Biden’s policies have personally hurt them. The survey also reveals the extent to which the multiracial and multigenerational coalition that elected Mr. Biden is fraying. Demographic groups that backed Mr. Biden by landslide margins in 2020 are now far more closely contested, as two-thirds of the electorate sees the country moving in the wrong direction.

    Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions. And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.

    Another good argument for the immediate repeal of the 19th amendment, one might argue, but let us leave that for another time. But it wouldn’t be a New York Times story unless the racial angle is dragged in, and the Times delivers in spades:

    In a remarkable sign of a gradual racial realignment between the two parties, the more diverse the swing state, the farther Mr. Biden was behind, and he led only in the whitest of the six.

    “The world is falling apart under Biden,” said Spencer Weiss, a 53-year-old electrical substation specialist in Bloomsburg, Pa., who supported Mr. Biden in 2020 but is now backing Mr. Trump, albeit with some reservations. “I would much rather see somebody that I feel can be a positive role-model leader for the country. But at least I think Trump has his wits about him.”

    As with any Times political story (and nowadays, they’re almost all political), the question we must ask is: why now? Why on a Sunday, the most important day of the week in Timesland. And aside from a few half-hearted demurrals by Shane Goldmacher – “Mr. Biden still has a year to turn the situation around” – the tone of the piece is bleak: “Another ominous sign for Democrats is that voters across all income levels felt that Mr. Biden’s policies had hurt them personally, while they credited Mr. Trump’s policies for helping them. The results were mirror opposites: Voters gave Mr. Trump a 17-point advantage for having helped them and Mr. Biden a 18-point disadvantage for having hurt them.”

    In other words, this time it’s personal. Perhaps voters are at last able to see the real Joe Biden: the guy whose dogs bite visitors, who habitually lies about his past and his “accomplishments,” a mean, avaricious, hack politician of deficient intelligence, in blatant hock to both the corrupt Midget currently ruling the Ukraine and the CCP in Beijing, who sports a Fredo Corleone-size chip of resentment on his shoulder and in whose White House mysterious bags of cocaine suddenly appear:

    Biden manifestly hates his country and during his unfortunate presidency has done everything he could to damage it: wreck the economy, inflame race relations, de-criminalize crime, and most seditious of all, throw open the southern border to the world, often preventing states from protecting themselves from invasion. This past week he hit bottom by allowing “Palestinians” — quintessential anti-Western foreigners, no matter where they were born — to run riot in the capital, deface our national monuments, and assail the White House.

    And now everybody sees it. As I wrote last week, the scales have finally fallen from many eyes, not the least Jewish eyes; at the height of the worst outbursts of violent anti-Semitism since the Holocaust, the president chose that exact moment to announce a new initiative against… “anti-Muslim hate” to be headed up by his spectacularly inept vice president, Kamala Harris, who has just been further embarrassed by having her homely stepdaughter, Ella Emhoff (whose father is Jewish), come out as a “Palestinian” supporter. Needless to say, none of rioters met with the fate of the still-languishing January 6 political prisoners, and nobody in the White House so much as uttered the word “insurrection,” even though the Islamophiles directed much of their ire at the President of the United States himself.

    The Times, therefore, is now in full damage-control mode. The fact that their bugbear, the much-indicted and thoroughly despised golem, Donald Trump, could actually be leading their puppet president is profoundly shocking, since they’ve done everything they could — advance his enemies, carry the bogus water of the “Russian collusion” hoax, vilify him and his supporters at every turn — to ruin him. And yet the voting public seemingly doesn’t care. So to translate the Times/Sienna poll into language even the dumbest Democrat can understand: Biden cannot be the candidate in 2024. And he won’t be. Consider this “hint” from Obama functionary David Axelrod:

    “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the nominee of the Democratic Party. What he needs to decide is whether that is wise; whether it’s in HIS best interest or the country’s?”
    — David Axelrod (@davidaxelrod) November 5, 2023

    Exactly when the Dems pull the plug on Biden remains to be seen, but a Torricelli maneuver is not out of the question. Rules mean nothing to the Democrats, and so they will likely allow Biden shuffle past the primaries with little or no opposition, and wait to see what the Republicans do after their primaries and July convention in Milwaukee. They’ll have a whole month to ponder before their own August convention in Chicago, at which point history suggests they will pull a rabbit out of their hats and nominate Anybody But Biden — Gavin Newsom perhaps, or even Michelle Obama. And why not? Her husband’s already enjoying his third term from the comfort of his home in toney, nearby Kalorama, and, for a putative ex-president, has suddenly been quite visible of late

    None of this, however, means Trump has a cakewalk ahead of him in November 2024 should he be the nominee. This poll, bad as it is for the Democrats, shows him beating Biden, and not necessarily any other Democrat. With Biden gone, Trump would suddenly be the old man, dragging all his baggage along with him in his revanchist campaign against all his foes, Democrats and Republicans alike. He still refuses to admit that the ineffective and even deadly mRNA “vaccines” were a colossal boondoggle, he has no explanation for not firing Christopher Wray at the FBI, nor for why he did not pardon the Jan. 6 dupes before he left the White House.

    And if he’s convicted on any of the 91 felony charges — mostly punitive indictments brought by dedicated leftist ideologues in our by-now thoroughly corrupted justice system — as he almost certainly will be, then all bets could be off, although even that seems like wishful thinking at this point.

    If the former president is convicted and sentenced — as many of his allies expect him to be in the Jan. 6-related trial held next year in Washington, D.C. — around 6 percent of voters across Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin say they would switch their votes to Mr. Biden. That would be enough, potentially, to decide the election.

    Revenge is a two-way street, however, and now that the Left has had its innings, the Right wants theirs, and a sizable number will vote for Trump even if he’s in an oubliette at the bottom of a Supermax prison. And the chances he’d be facing Biden at this point seem slim to none. “In a matchup that pits Mr. Biden against a generic Republican candidate,” notes the Times, “the Republican candidate wins by 16 percentage points.” Similarly, polls indicate that a “generic Democrat” would crush Trump.

    Still, no matter who the Democrat nominee is, these are issues that are not going away unless the Republican candidate is someone other than Donald J. Trump. Unfortunately, Trump has significantly damaged his ablest rival, Florida governor Ron DeSantis with a non-stop campaign of disparagement. So who might that “generic Republican” be? Yon Youngkin has a lean and hungry look…

    1. Fred, I agree with this article. But I’m not sure that either Biden OR Trump will ultimately be their respective parties’ nominees.

      The GOP has been looking to rid itself of Trump for eight years. If he is convicted, there will be the potential for a massive change of heart among GOP primary voters– and those within the RNC.

      And while Obama obviously enjoys the prolongation of his power with the Biden presidency, given the fact he is the puppet-master, he also intensely wants the socialists to win. That is true of his fellow travelers also.

      And as I mentioned in the post, the Kennedy factor and other third party candidates will play a role in the individual states.

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