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07/15/2015

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Context on Trump's candidacy:

"t’s easy to conclude that Donald Trump isn’t going to help the GOP’s image with Hispanics and many swing voters, but it’s also impossible to know how much Trump will actually injure the Republican brand in this cycle. How long will he stick around? If Trump drops out before the voting begins in early 2016, or even midway through the primary season, voters will have many months to forget and move on. Yet Trump could stick it out, get his slice of votes all the way to June, and deliver a raucous, memorable address to a huge TV audience at the national convention. In the short term, Trump takes up a huge amount of media oxygen. There’s only so much coverage to go around, and if television segments and news stories continue to focus on Trump, that’s airtime that candidates with less name recognition — like Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, John Kasich, and many others — are not getting.

In the worst nightmare for the eventual Republican nominee, Trump might run as an independent in November once the primary process has concluded. “Sore-loser” laws that exist in 44 states do not generally apply to presidential candidates, and even in the few cases where they do, a court challenge by Trump might well be successful. In part, this is because the “candidates” on the ballot in a general election for president are the electors, not the politicians to whom the electors are pledged.

"In the fall Trump could squeeze the GOP in two ways. Most of the votes he would drain would almost certainly come from the Republican-leaning pool. And Trump would make immigration a headline issue day after day. The eventual GOP nominee is unlikely to have an immigration package as appealing to Hispanics as the Democrats will have, so Republican hopes of changing the subject to win more Latino votes by means of cultural or economic issues would be more difficult.

Unless and until Donald Trump changes course, Republicans ought to stock up on Excedrin. Make that migraine-strength Excedrin."

Trump is no conservative. He is a narcissistic side show that hurts the chances for conservative candidates.

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/is-donald-trump-the-new-ross-perot-or-the-next-pat-buchanan/

Bob, I agree that Trump is not an overall strong conservative; and he is not my first choice.

Interestingly, Michael Barone over at NRO is suggesting that an independent Trump candidacy could HELP the Republicans.

In order to win the GOP nomination, you have to win individual state primaries. Can Trump win in places like Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, etc.? Somehow, I don't see it happening (acknowledging I may be wrong about that). But hopefully he will embolden at least a couple of the other candidates to toughen up, and to think of America and Americans first. The Republicans' primary problems are their longstanding weakness on so many conservative issues, and their dissociation from the concerns of the American people.

Yes, Democrats are definitely afraid of an independent Trump candidacy. Here's what they're saying to express their deepest fears: "Please run, The Donald, please run!"

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